One part Fitness, one part Intellectual, mix in some Fellowship and you have a calorie burn for the body that fuels the soul. Throw some weight in a ruck sack, head off on a 2-3 mile hike while your mind is led through Q source material straight from the creators of F3 and other leadership development programs.
Backblast – April 12, 2025
AO: The Fortress – Grace Church – Perrysburg, OH
PAX:
Geppetto – Q
Bourbon
Tarnished
Van Wilder
Golden Gate
Mile High
Binford
Doubtfire
Workout: Leadership Ruck – Thinking in Bets
No FNG’s so right into F3 Mission and Core Principles:
F3 – Fitness, Fellowship, Faith
Mission –Plant, grow and serve small workout groups for men for the invigoration of male community leadership.
The core principles of F3 are that it must:
Be free of charge
Be open to all men
Be held outdoors, rain or shine, heat or cold
Be led by men who participate in the workout in a rotating fashion, with no training or certification necessary. You versus you. Modify or stop an exercise if you need to. The most important thing is that nobody gets hurt.
End with a Circle of Trust
Credo: Leave no man behind but leave no man where you find him.
Warm Up:
Michael Phelps OYO
Willie Mays Hayes in cadence
Side Straddle Hops in cadence
The “Thang”:
Intro & Overview: “Thinking in Bets” by Annie Duke
At the very start of Thinking in Bets, Annie Duke recounts the now-famous moment from Super Bowl XLIX in 2015 when the Seattle Seahawks, just one yard from the end zone, chose to pass the ball instead of running it with Marshawn Lynch. The pass was intercepted by Malcolm Butler of the Patriots, ending the game—and instantly becoming one of the most criticized play calls in football history.
How Annie Frames the Seahawks Story:
Duke uses this example to show how people confuse decision quality with outcome quality. Most of the world judged that decision as terrible because it didn’t work. But Annie argues that this judgment is a classic example of “resulting”—a term she uses to describe when we judge a decision solely based on its outcome.
She explains that the pass play actually increased the team’s chances of scoring in the limited time they had, and many experts agreed it was statistically sound. It just happened to go wrong. So was it a bad decision? Not necessarily—it was just a bad result.
How It Relates to the Book’s Theme:
This story perfectly sets up the book’s central thesis: We live in a world full of uncertainty and chance. Good decisions can lead to bad outcomes, and bad decisions can lead to good ones. If we judge our choices only by whether they “worked,” we won’t learn well or improve our thinking.
We often think life is about making the “right” decision. But Annie Duke, a former professional poker player, challenges that idea. In Thinking in Bets, she argues that life, like poker, is a game of decision-making under uncertainty. We can make good decisions and still have bad outcomes—and vice versa. The key is to stop judging decisions solely by their results and start thinking more like a poker player: focusing on the quality of the decision process, not just the outcome.
This book isn’t just about poker or gambling—it’s about how we think, how we judge, and how we can get better at both. It’s especially relevant for men in leadership, business, and relationships—anywhere decisions matter and uncertainty is the norm.
Key Concepts & Group Questions
Resulting: Separating Outcomes from Decisions
Concept: We tend to judge the quality of a decision based on whether the outcome was good or bad. But because outcomes are influenced by luck and unknowns, this thinking can lead to poor learning.
Question:
Can you think of a time when you made a good decision but got a bad result—or vice versa? How did that shape your thinking going forward?
Thinking in Probabilities, Not Certainties
Concept: Duke encourages us to think in terms of probabilities instead of black-and-white outcomes. Rarely is anything 100% or 0%.
Question:
How comfortable are you with uncertainty when making decisions? What would it look like to start thinking in probabilities instead of absolutes?
The Influence of Bias and Emotion
Concept: We’re wired to defend our beliefs and ignore conflicting evidence. Emotions and confirmation bias can cloud good decision-making.
Question:
What’s one area of your life where emotion might be leading your decision-making more than logic or reflection? How can you step back and “zoom out” in that area?
The Role of Accountability Partners and “Truth-Seeking Groups”
Concept: Duke advocates for surrounding yourself with people who value truth over being right. These people challenge your thinking, ask hard questions, and help you learn.
Question:
Who are your “truth-tellers”? Are you open to feedback and correction—or do you mostly seek agreement?
Ended with:
Count-O-Rama
Name-O-Rama
The “Six”: Van Wilder – Joined the group because he was working with a personal trainer (Yeti) and he wanted something more economical. Yeti let him know about F3. Has been fartsacking a little lately but appreciates the encouragement and consistency he finds with the group.
Announcements – Convergence May 10th.
Ball of Man – Let by Bourbon as YHC set up for the workout
Spreadsheets from the Gloom: Good conversation today. Hope the men in attendance got something out of the topic
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